Project evaluation using fuzzy logic and risk analysis techniques.

摘要

The purpose of this thesis work is to develop a new methodology to solve risk analysis problems with the purpose of determining the project's attractiveness. The algorithm created in this thesis was developed using fuzzy logic and designed for the software development industry. Fuzzy logic was used since it is a tool capable of modeling complex and uncertain or vague data using simple terminology such as IF-Then statements. This logic is perfect to deal with the uncertainty risk plays in a projects development.; This methodology provides a quick and efficient tool for project managers in their use of project evaluation, by allowing the project manager to scrap useless projects without putting the least amount of effort into an analysis. The result of this work is the development of a new line of thought in the area of risk analysis in software development, where the probability and impact of a project delay can determine the attractiveness of the project. Yet, this methodology can also be generalized and therefore have the capability of being used in the project evaluation in many different kinds of industries not only the software industry.