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Comparison of methods for valuating technology innovation and adoption projects.

机译:比较评估技术创新和采用项目的方法。

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摘要

The application of NPV, Decision Trees, and Real Options in real asset management has been debated in academia and practiced in industry during the last 10 years. Many researchers advocate Real Options over NPV and Decision Trees in project management. Some researches propose the integration of Real Options and NPV in real asset valuation. However, the comparable advantage and limitations of the three methods in technology development and adoption evaluation have not been addressed. This research, therefore, studies the feasibility, advantage, and discrepancies, of each method in technology investment evaluation at various innovation phases.; The research findings of this study are built on its novel research methods. Four criteria, coping with uncertainty, adaptability, information cost, and overall utility are developed to measure the application values of the methods. In addition, two technology phases, the start-up phase and the maturity phase, are defined as the market competition settings for the technology investment projects. With interviews providing insightful explanations for the statistical analysis of the survey data, the methodological triangulation strengthens the research validity and reliability. Lastly, Repeated Measure ANOVA is applied to screen out the differences among the technology innovation investment experiences of the surveyed subjects. As a result, the comparative advantage and disadvantage of each method in technology investment evaluations is studied with the survey data. Some research findings include the following:; Real Options and Decision Trees are superior to NPV in coping with uncertainties and their advantages are more significant at the start-up phase and better reflected in sequential technology investments and product portfolio. The application values of Decision Tree and Real Options in risk management are leveraged by the firm's learning ability.; In addition, the research finds the applications of all the three methods require higher information cost at the start-up phase than at the maturity stage. At the maturity phase, Real Option application requires higher information cost than the other two, which suggests the application of Real Options is most difficult.; Last but not least, the standard deviation for the application values of Real Options is the highest among the three methods suggesting Real Options' application in technology investment is most controversial.
机译:在过去的十年中,NPV,决策树和实物期权在实物资产管理中的应用在学术界争论不休,并在行业中得到了实践。许多研究人员主张在项目管理中使用NPV和决策树之上的实物期权。一些研究提出将实物期权和NPV整合到不动产估值中。但是,尚未解决这三种方法在技术开发和采用评估中的可比优势和局限性。因此,本研究研究了在各个创新阶段技术投资评估中每种方法的可行性,优势和差异。这项研究的研究结果基于其新颖的研究方法。制定了应对不确定性,适应性,信息成本和总体效用的四个标准来衡量方法的应用价值。另外,两个技术阶段,即启动阶段和成熟阶段,被定义为技术投资项目的市场竞争环境。通过访谈为调查数据的统计分析提供有见地的解释,方法三角剖分增强了研究的有效性和可靠性。最后,采用重复测量方差分析,以筛选出被调查对象的技术创新投资经验之间的差异。结果,利用调查数据研究了每种方法在技术投资评估中的相对优势和劣势。一些研究发现包括:实物期权和决策树在应付不确定性方面优于NPV,其优势在启动阶段更为显着,并在后续技术投资和产品组合中得到了更好的体现。决策树和实物期权在风险管理中的应用价值被公司的学习能力所利用。此外,研究发现,这三种方法的应用在启动阶段都比在成熟阶段需要更高的信息成本。在成熟阶段,实物期权的申请需要比其他两个更高的信息成本,这表明实物期权的应用最为困难。最后但并非最不重要的一点是,在三种方法中,实物期权的应用价值的标准偏差最高,这表明实物期权在技术投资中的应用最具争议。

著录项

  • 作者

    Wang, Tiehong (Ann).;

  • 作者单位

    The George Washington University.;

  • 授予单位 The George Washington University.;
  • 学科 Business Administration Management.; Economics Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2007
  • 页码 91 p.
  • 总页数 91
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 贸易经济;财政、金融;
  • 关键词

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