The Affect Heuristic and Investment Behavior: A Qualitative Study of the 2008 Financial Crisis.

摘要

The 2008 global financial crisis revealed that contemporary models of rational risk assessment based on the EMH were inadequate. The alternative framework, BFT, models investors as psychological agents whose investment behaviors are influenced by emotions through the mechanisms of the affect heuristic. The affect heuristic is still being incorporated into economic theory and the purpose of this study was to contribute to this by investigating the perception of risk based on both the quality and the specific thematic content of the investor's affect. The specific feelings of optimism and fear that investors had when they were assessing risk during times of economic crisis were explored by asking: What are the main emotional themes at play during an economic crisis? And, what sources of information did the investor feel a sense of optimism in or fear of during their risk assessment? This provided an inventory of the emotional content that was being engaged by the affect heuristic. A qualitative study was utilized, employing a phenomenological design gathered data using semi-structured interviews with investors who were trading during the 2008 global financial crisis. Utilizing the Appraisal Theory of Emotions, this research goes beyond mere affect valence to explore the specific content of the emotional experiences. Analyzed thematically to uncover common elements in the investor experience, the data was coded axially using the pre-existing themes of positive and negative affect associated with crisis risk assessment. The compiled responses represented a comprehensive report of the range of experiences that were had by investors during a time of crisis and give researchers a comprehensive picture of the emotions implicated in emotionally biased risk assessment behavior. The full scope of the categories of emotional experiences is now available to empirical researchers. The primary implication of this is that it allows for theoretical development and empirical investigation of BFT by elaborating the content of emotions experienced during an economic crisis. For the individual investor, this study will increase the understanding of the way risk assessment is subject to the affect heuristic and this can facilitate a more objective perception of the risks involved. The main recommendation of this study is for researchers to incorporate the Appraisal Theory of Emotions into the theoretical models of the affect heuristic in order to achieve a more comprehensive understanding of the role thematic content of emotions has on financial decision making and risk assessment.