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'Falling to peaces': Conciliatory agreements and the durability of peace.

机译:“走向和平”:和解协议与持久和平。

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摘要

States often experience disagreements such as competing territorial claims. Sometimes they attempt to address these differences by negotiating explicit, written settlements. Can these agreements help ensure a durable peace? I examine the effect of agreements that attempt to address differences after significant conflict has occurred, such as peace agreements, as well as agreements designed to manage competing claims before they reach the level of violence. I refer to these two sets of agreements together as 'conciliatory agreements'.; Using the theoretical framework of the bargaining model of war, I argue that the provisions specified in conciliatory agreements make the existing peaceful equilibrium more robust against the potentially disruptive effect of environmental shocks, such as changes in relative capabilities or regime type. Furthermore, I argue that conciliatory agreements not only increase the likelihood that peace is maintained but also impact the kind of peace maintained. Specifically, competing states that experience disruptive changes may remain at peace either because they continue to accept the status quo or because they peacefully renegotiate a new settlement. I argue that varying agreement provisions can account for why, when conditions change, some states resort to force, while others peacefully renegotiate, and still others maintain their original agreement.; In order to evaluate my propositions, I rely on an existing list of territorial claims from the Americas, the Middle East, and Europe between 1919 and 1995, provided by Huth and Allee's (2002) research. For each of these cases, I collect all conciliatory agreements between the claimants and use these to test my theoretical expectations about the impact of agreement provisions on the durability of peace and the occurrence of renegotiation.
机译:各国经常会遇到争夺领土争端等分歧。有时,他们试图通过谈判明确的书面和解解决这些差异。这些协议可以帮助确保持久和平吗?我研究了试图在发生重大冲突后解决分歧的协议(例如和平协议)以及旨在在竞争性诉求达到暴力程度之前对其进行管理的协议的效果。我将这两套协议统称为“和解协议”。我使用战争谈判模型的理论框架,认为和解协议中规定的条款使现有的和平平衡更加强大,可以抵御环境冲击的潜在破坏性影响,例如相对能力或政权类型的变化。此外,我认为和解协议不仅增加了维持和平的可能性,而且还影响了维持和平的种类。具体而言,经历颠覆性变化的竞争国家可能会保持和平,要么是因为它们继续接受现状,要么是因为它们和平地重新谈判了新的解决方案。我认为,不同的协议条款可以解释为什么当条件改变时,一些国家诉诸武力,而另一些国家和平地重新谈判,而另一些国家则维持其原始协议。为了评估我的主张,我依靠Huth和Allee(2002)研究提供的现有的1919年至1995年之间来自美洲,中东和欧洲的领土主张清单。对于上述每种情况,我都收集索赔人之间的所有调解协议,并用它们来检验我对协议条款对和平持久性和重新谈判的影响的理论期望。

著录项

  • 作者

    Mattes, Michaela.;

  • 作者单位

    Rice University.;

  • 授予单位 Rice University.;
  • 学科 Political Science General.; Political Science International Law and Relations.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2006
  • 页码 168 p.
  • 总页数 168
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 政治理论;国际法;
  • 关键词

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