Forecasting storm duration using radar storm tracking.

摘要

Although flash flooding is one of the leading causes of weather-related fatalities; it is one of the least researched topics in meteorology. This research focuses on developing a more reliable measure for flash flood forecasting that will help forecasters identify areas that are threatened by heavy rainfall totals.; Calculation of the rear edge locations/velocities of storm cells are compared to the centroid locations/velocities to determine storm cell durations, which are then compared to precipitation totals measured by WATADS and two rain gauges. Several flash flood and non-flash flood events are examined to show that the rear edge velocity is slower than the centroid velocity which could underestimate the storm duration and the precipitation totals produced.; Analysis conducted of the rear edge in the cases used shows that it moves on average 2.5 ms-1 slower than the centroid velocities in the flash flood events, while only 0.6 ms-1 slower in the non-flash flood events. Estimated storm durations provide little correlation with the precipitation totals, which implies that storm duration should be used along with other factors in the process of forecasting for precipitation totals and the occurrence of flash floods.