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Topics on change-point estimation under adaptive sampling procedures.

机译:自适应采样程序下的变化点估计主题。

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摘要

The problem of locating a jump discontinuity (change-point) in a smooth parametric regression model with a bounded covariate is considered in this dissertation. It is assumed that one can sample the covariate at different values and measure the corresponding responses. Budget constraints dictate that a total of n such measurements can be obtained. A multistage adaptive procedure is proposed, where at each stage an estimate of the change point is obtained and new points are sampled from its appropriately chosen neighborhood. It is shown that such procedures accelerate the rate of convergence of the least squares estimate of the change-point. Further, the asymptotic distribution of the estimate is derived using empirical processes techniques. The improved efficiency of the procedure is demonstrated using real and synthetic data. This problem is primarily motivated by applications in engineering systems.; In many applications, one is interested in joint estimation of the parametric model and its special feature, namely the change point. Two criteria based on the expected L2 error are defined and the optimality problems are studied and solved. The first criterion focuses on allocating the available samples appropriately over the covariate domain. The procedure involves using an initial fraction of the budget to estimate the parameters of the underlying model. Subsequently, the design region is partitioned into three segments, with the middle segment defined as a fixed neighborhood around the estimated change-point. The objective then becomes to allocate the available samples to these three segments so as to minimize an asymptotic expected L2 error that depends on model parameters, the estimates from the initial fraction acting as surrogates. In the second criterion one is interested in allocating the proportion of samples between the two sampling stages, where in the first stage initial estimates of the model parameters and the change point are obtained while in the second stage an improved estimate of the change point is sought.; Finally, applications of the obtained results are extended to the jump boundary curve detection problem for a 3-dimensional response surface. The motivation for examining this problem comes primarily from geology, where one is interested in recovering the structure of the mine surface from mineral samples. Further an adaptive qualitative methodology is proposed and its performance is illustrated through simulated examples.
机译:本文考虑了在有界协变量的光滑参数回归模型中定位跳跃不连续点(变化点)的问题。假设可以以不同的值对协变量进行采样并测量相应的响应。预算限制规定总共可以获取n个此类测量。提出了一种多阶段自适应程序,其中在每个阶段都获得变化点的估计,并从其适当选择的邻域中采样新点。结果表明,这样的程序加快了变化点的最小二乘估计的收敛速度。此外,使用经验过程技术得出估计的渐近分布。使用真实数据和综合数据证明了该过程的改进效率。这个问题主要是由工程系统中的应用引起的。在许多应用中,人们对参数模型及其特殊功能(即变化点)的联合估计很感兴趣。定义了基于预期L2误差的两个准则,并研究和解决了最优性问题。第一个标准侧重于在协变量域上适当分配可用样本。该过程涉及使用预算的初始部分来估算基础模型的参数。随后,将设计区域划分为三个部分,中间部分定义为围绕估计的更改点的固定邻域。然后,目标便是将可用样本分配给这三个段,以最大程度地减少取决于模型参数的渐近预期L2误差,而初始分数的估计值将作为替代指标。在第二个标准中,有兴趣在两个采样阶段之间分配样本的比例,其中在第一阶段中,获得模型参数和变化点的初始估计,而在第二阶段中,寻求变化点的改进估计。;最后,将获得的结果的应用扩展到3维响应面的跳跃边界曲线检测问题。研究这一问题的动机主要来自地质学,人们对从矿物样品中恢复矿山表面的结构感兴趣。进一步提出了一种自适应定性方法,并通过仿真实例说明了其性能。

著录项

  • 作者

    Lan, Yan.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Michigan.;

  • 授予单位 University of Michigan.;
  • 学科 Statistics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2007
  • 页码 132 p.
  • 总页数 132
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 统计学 ;
  • 关键词

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