“一带一路”倡议和印尼经济发展在未来基础设施建设方面经济联系的政策建议研究

摘要

Indonesia is forecasted to be the fifth biggest economy in 2050 and has a long way to go to achieve that target.The challenge is to attain economic growth by at least6％annually to avoid middle-income trap(Suryabrata,2017).Therefore,there are several obstacles which hinder Indonesia to be able to realize these ambitions such as infrastructure deficit and the development gap between Java and non-Java Islands.In Addition,to suffice the infrastructure needs,depending solely on the state budget will not be sufficient.Hence,multiple financing sources from SOE and private sector including foreign investors are crucial.In this regard,the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)is seen as the suitable regional integration initiative to fulfill the infrastructure needs in Indonesia.
　　This paper aims to explore the possibility of economic linkages in public infrastructure between the BRI and Indonesian economic development.For the first research question,it figures out the most challenging problems of the BRI in Indonesia through Indonesian government perspective.The second research question about the motivation of opposition towards the BRI in Indonesia,it used three hypotheses to test whether it will become the factor of motivation to oppose the BRI in Indonesia.Those hypotheses are Antiglobalization,Collective memory and Realism in International relation.This paper also utilized Jakarta-Bandung HSR as the case study for this paper.Therefore,from the answers of the first and second question and also from the case study,it will help to address the third research question of this paper regarding policy suggestion.Furthermore,this paper used three research methodologies.First,document analysis collected from government data and regulation,media,book and academic journals,second is the case study,and the third method is the qualitative interview.
　　This research has produced several significant findings.The findings of the first research question have revealed that the most challenging problems are project preparation problem(pre-feasibility study formulation),the concerns about unskilled Chinese workers inflow,the negative stigma about China's investment by some Indonesian bureaucrats,and the mismatch between the BRI plan and Indonesian development planning.For the second research question,it showed that the opposition towards the BRI in Indonesia is confirmed to be motivated by all three hypotheses mentioned above and the collective memory hypothesis is the strongest one.The oppositions oppose the BRI because of the communist ideology which they think as anti-religious ideology.The oppositions also believed that communist ideology is the current and one of the most dangerous ideologies for Indonesia.
　　All in all,there is a possibility to link the BRI with Indonesia's development planning on public infrastructure projects especially if the policy suggestion presented in this paper are implemented.Those policy suggestions are focused on project preparation topic,the visa and working policy for foreign workers and to promote more understanding about China to those oppositions through intensifying cultural exchanges.

目录

声明

Acknowledgments

Abstract

Table of Contents

List of Figures

List of Tables

List of abbreviations

Chapter Ⅰ-Introduction

1．1 Background

1．2 Research questions and objectives

1．3 Significance of this study

1．4．Chapter Outline

Chapter Ⅱ-Literature Review

2．1 Previous studies

2．1．1 Indonesian public infrastructure

2．1．2 Indonesian oppositions

2．2 International investment and Economic integration

2．3 The Belt and Road Initiative

2．3．1 BRI’s Fact and its proponents’ perspective

2．3．2 Critics and Sceptical views of OBOR initiative

2．3．3 Current Indonesia and China relation in the Belt and Road initiative

2．4 Indonesia’s competitive advantages and challenges

2．4．1 Indonesia’s competitive advantages

2．4．2 Indonesia’s challenges

2．5 Hypotheses for the first research question

2．6 Hypotheses for the second research question

2．6．2 Collective Memory

2．6．3 Realism in International Relations

2．7 Author’s comments on the current study

Chapter Ⅲ-Research Methodology

3．1 Research design

3．2 Research questions and objectives

3．3 Research Focus

3．4 Data collection method

3．5 Research sample

3．6 Data analysis techniques

3．6．1 Interactive data analysis model

3．7 Innovation of this paper

3．8 The framework of analysis for this thesis

Chapter Ⅳ：Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail as case study

4．1 History

4．2 Project details

4．3 Project timeline

4．4 Findings and lesson learned from the case study

Chapter Ⅴ-Findings

5．1．1 Ministry of Foreign Affairs

5．1．2 Ministry of Maritime Coordination Affairs

5．1．3 Indonesian Investment Coordination Board(BKPM)

5．1．4 KPPIP(National Committee for Acceleration of Infrastructure Delivery)

5．1．5 Ministry of Finance

5．1．6 State Owned Enterprise(PT．Adhi Karya)

5．1．7 Private Sectors(1 executive in the multinational company，1 businessman and investor)

5．1．8 Finding from the case study to address first research question

5．1．9 Common ideas among the respondents

5．2 Findings of second research question：The motivation of opposition against the BRI in Indonesia by some Indonesian oppositions

5．2．1 Anti-globalization hypothesis

5．2．2 Collective memory hypothesis

5．2．3 Realist hypothesis

5．2．4 Oppositions’view about Jakarta-Bandung HSR project

5．2．5 Oppositions view about the BRI

5．3 Findings for third research question(policy suggestion)

5．3．1 Existing policies and regulations

5．3．2 Several suggestions from different ministries’ officials，SOE，and the private sector

Chapter Ⅵ-Discussion

6．1 The most challenging problems of the BRI to link with Indonesian public infrastructure’ needs

6．2 The motivation of why some people in Indonesia oppose the BRI

6．2．1 Anti-Globalization factor

6．2．2 Collective Memory factor

6．2．3 Realism theory factor

6．3 Policy suggestion to link the BRI with Indonesian infrastructure development

6．3．1 Existing policy and regulation

6．3．2 Suggestions from the respondents

Chapter Ⅶ-Conclusion and Policy Suggestion

7．1 Concluding remark

7．2 Policy Suggestion

7．3 Limitations

7．4 Future research suggestion

References

Appendix