声明
致谢
1 绪论
1.1 研究背景(Research Background)
1.2 研究目的与意义 (Research Purpose and Significance)
1.3 研究内容 (Research Content)
1.4 研究方法与技术路线 (Research Methods and Technical Route)
1.5 主要创新点 (Main Innovations)
1.6 本章小结 (Chapter Summary)
2 文献综述
2.1 碳价驱动因素及相依性研究( Carbon Price Drivers and Dependence)
2.2 关联资产间的信息溢出效应研究(The Information Spillovers among Related Assets)
2.3 关联资产间尾部相依性及极端风险溢出效应研究 (The Tail Dependence and Extreme Risk Spillovers among Related Assets)
2.4 碳价预测研究 (Carbon Price Forecasting)
2.5 本章小结 (Chapter Summary)
3 概念界定与相关理论基础
3.1 重要概念界定 (Definition of Important Concepts)
3.2 大宗商品金融化及金融市场一体化相关理论 (Commodity Financialization and Financial market Integration Theories)
3.3 基于经济基础假说的相依性和信息溢出效应形成机理 (The Formation Mechanism of Dependence and Information Spillover Effect based on the Economic Foundation Hypothesis)
3.4 相依性变化的理论基础及理论解释 (Theoretical Basis and Explanation of Dependence Change)
3.5 本章小结 (Chapter Summary)
4 碳期货与关联资产间的相依性特征及相依性变化研究
4.1 碳市场与关联市场间的信息传导路径 (Information Transmission Paths between Carbon Market and Related Markets)
4.2 分位数回归与模型构建(The Quantile Regression and Model Construction)
4.3 变量选取与数据预处理 (Variable Selection and Preliminary Analysis)
4.4 EU ETS不同阶段的相依性特征分析 (Dependence Features Analysis during different Phases of EU ETS)
4.5 基于结构变点的相依性变化分析 (Dependence Changes Analysis based on Structural Breaks)
4.6 本章小结 (Chapter Summary)
5 碳期货与关联资产间的动态信息溢出效应研究
5.1 溢出指数法 (The Spillover Index Methodology)
5.2 变量选取与数据预处理 (Variable Selection and Preliminary Analysis)
5.3 静态信息溢出效应分析 (Static Information Spillover Effect Analysis)
5.4 动态信息溢出效应分析 (Dynamic Information Spillover Effects Analysis)
5.5 碳期货与关联资产间的配对净溢出效应分析 (Net Pairwise Spillover Effects between Carbon Futures and Related Assets)
5.6 稳健性检验 (Robustness Tests)
5.7 本章小结 (Chapter Summary)
6 碳期货与关联资产间的极端风险溢出效应研究
6.1 分位数VAR方法 (The Quantile VAR Methodology)
6.2 变量选取及数据预处理 (Variable Selection and Preliminary Analysis)
6.3 极端低分位点的实证结果分析 (Empirical Analysis for the Extreme-Low Quantile)
6.4 极端高分位点的实证结果分析(Empirical Analysis for the Extreme-High Quantile)
6.5 本章小结 (Chapter Summary)
7 重大危机事件对系统内波动溢出效应的冲击研究
7.1 多元 GARCH 模型及波动率脉冲响应函数 (Multivariate GARCH Model and Volatility Impulse Response Functions )
7.2 变量选取及数据预处理 (Variable Selection and Preliminary Analysis)
7.3 基于两元 BEKK-GARCH 模型的时变波动相关性测度(Dynamic Volatility Correlation Measurement Based on Bi-variate BEKK-GARCH models)
7.4 重大事件的冲击效应分析 (The Shocks of the Major Events)
7.5 本章小结 (Chapter Summary)
8 基于关联资产信息的碳价预测研究
8.1 变量选取与数据预分析 (Variable Selection and Preliminary Analysis)
8.2 预测模型构建与预测方法(Predictive Model Construction and Prediction methods)
8.3 能源及金融风险因子的预测能力对比分析 (Comparative Analysis of Forecast Ability of Energy and Financial Assets)
8.4 基于数据收缩技术的样本外预测结果分析 (Out-of-Sample Forecast results with Data Shrinkage Techniques)
8.5 本章小结 (Chapter Summary)
9 研究结论及政策启示
9.1 主要研究结论 (Main Research Conclusions)
9.2 相关政策启示 (Related Policy Implications)
9.3 研究不足与展望(Research Defect and Prospect)
参考文献
作者简历
学位论文数据集