声明
ABSTRACT
CONTENT
LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF TABLES
1.INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
1.2 Objective of the Research
1.3 Outline of Thesis
2.Modelling Methodology Literature Review
2.1 Aggregate Models
2.2 Disaggregate Models
2.3 Summary
3.HISTORICAL PATTERNS
3.1 Factors Influencing Motor Vehicle Growth
3.1.1 Population growth
3.1.2 Urbanization
3.1.3 Economic development
3.1.4 Summary
3.2 Variance Development among Provinces
4.VEHICLE LIMITATATION
4.1 Shanghai
4.2 Beijing
4.3 Summary
5.THEORICAL HYPOTHESIS
6.DATA AND DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
6.1 Data
6.2 Descriptive Statistics
7.EMPIRICAL MODEL
7.1 Fixed and Random Effects Models
7.2 Omitted Variables and Endogeneity
7.3 Heteroscedasticity and Serial Correlation
8.Evaluation of the Models
8.1 Comparison between Models
9.1 Comparison between Groups
10.CONCLUSION
11. POLICY IMPLICATION
REFERENCE
摘要
APPENDIX
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS