声明
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
摘要
ABSTRACT
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION
1.1 General Background
1.2 Agriculture in Bangladesh
1.3 Significance of the Study
1.4 Statement of the Research Questions
1.5 Assumptions of the Study
1.6 Structure of the Thesis
1.7 Definition of the Key Terms
CHAPTER TWO REVIEW OF LITERATURE
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Interrelations among Climate Change,Agricultural Production and Food Security
2.3 Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture:Global Context
2.4 Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture:Bangladesh Context
2.5 Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change
2.6 Determinants of Adaptation Decisions
2.7 Problem Confrontation regarding Adaptation to Climate Change
2.8 Models and Approaches for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture
2.8.1 Computable general equilibrium(CGE)model
2.8.2 Cross-sectional or Ricardian approach
2.8.3 Crop modeling(or production function)approach
2.8.4 Panel data approach
2.8.5 Agro-ecological zone(AEZ)approach
2.9 Models for Investigating the Determinants of Farmers’ Adaptive Choices
2.10 Conceptual Framework of the Study
CHAPTER THREE METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Methodology for Addressing Cfimate Change Impacts at the National Level(Country Aggregate)
3.2.1 Study area
3.2.2 Data and sources
3.2.3 Descriptive statistics
3.2.4 Trend analysis
3.2.5 Stationarity checking through unit root test
3.2.6 Regression method and model
3.3 Methodology for Determining Farm Level Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
3.3.1 Broad study area
3.3.2 Specific study area
3.3.3 Population and sample of the study
3.3.4 Instrument of data collection
3.3.5 Structure of the questionnaire
3.3.6 Validity and reliability of the questionnaire
3.3.7 Pre-testing the questionnaire
3.3.8 Finalysing the questionnaire
3.3.9 Survey and data collection
3.3.10 Coding,entry and cleaning of data
3.3.11 Data analysis
3.4 Analytical framework/Research design
3.5 Conclusion
CHAPTER FOUR Effects of Climate Change on the Yield and Cropping Area of Major Food Crops:A Case of Bangladesh
4.1.Introduction
4.2.Climatic Features of Major Food Crops in Bangladesh
4.3.Methodology
4.3.1.Data Sources and Properties
4.3.2.Descriptive Statistics
4.3.3.Analysis of Quantitative Linear Trend in Climatic Variables
4.3.4.Trend Graph
4.3.5.Non-Climatic Trend(Influence of Production Inputs)Removal in Crop Yields
4.3.6.Stationarity and Unit Root
4.3.7.Empirical Model Specification
4.4.Results and Diseussion
4.4.1.The Regression Results for Aus Rice
4.4.2.The Regression Results for Aman Rice
4.4.3.The Regression Results for Boro Rice
4.4.4.The Regression Results for Wheat
4.5.Conclusions
CHAPTER FIVE Smallholders’ Food Security in the Perspective of Climate Change:Evidence from Farm Level Data in the Northwest HBT of Bangladesh
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Brief Literature Review
5.3 Methodology
5.3.1 Study area
5.3.2 Population and sampling
5.3.3 Analysis of data
5.4 Results and Discussions
5.4.1 Independent variables
5.4.2 Dependent variable
5.4.3 Mean procedure for variables with multiple categories and ANOVA
5.4.4.Relationship between the independent and dependent variable
5.5.Conclusions
CHAPTER SIX Investigating the Determinants of Farmers’ Adaptation Choices in Response to Climate Change in the Northwest High-Barind Tract of Bangladesh
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Brief Literature Review:Agriculture and Adaptation to Climate Change
6.3 Theoretical Framework
6.4 Methodology
6.4.1 Study area
6.4.2 Data
6.4.3 Analytical framework
6.4.4 Model specification
6.4.5 Variables included in the model
6.5 Results and Discussions
6.5.1 Comparison of maximum temperature and rainfall data between Bangladesh and northwest HBT
6.5.2 Farmers’ perceptions about climate change and comparison with BMD data
6.5.3 Farmers’ Major Adaptation methods in the northwest HBT of Bangladesh
6.5.4 Obstacles of using adaptation strategies
6.5.5 Findings from the MNL regression model and discussion
6.6 Conclusions
CHAPTER SEVEN OVERVIEW/SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Overview/Summary of the major findings
7.2.1 Impacts of Climate change on the major food crops
7.2.2 Smailholders’ food security in the changing climatic conditions
7.2.3 Investigating determinants of farmers adaptation decisions
7.3 Recommendations
7.3.1 Recommendations for policy implications
7.3.2 Future recommendations to overcome limitations of this study
REFERENCES
PUBLISHED RESEARCH WORKS AND SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITIES OF THE AUTHOR
Appendix