MULTI-SCALE RIVER BASIN SIMULATION FOR FLOOD EXPLANATION, MONITORING AND FORECASTING

摘要

The initial tool for flood simulation is the multi-scale and multi-purpose 2D grid based unified model for a river basin, by estimation of water/mass flows through the basin. The extended version is the model of complex system-river basin-delta-coastal zone (RIDEC). The both models possibilities include estimation of water thickness-discharge in all points of a basin, as the system response on meteorology and human pressure/impacts. The objectives of the paper are as follows: the model validation for the medium scale basin (Moscow River); simulation for floods in the large river basin by RIDEC (River Rhine). The computing of medium scale basin daily discharge for some years duration includes both snowmelt and rainfall floods and was satisfactory validated with statistic criteria. Tentative scenario simulation of the large basin is extended by snowfall/snowmelt dependence on altitude and shows the necessity for grid preformed meteorological data for the purpose of validation. The models demonstrate the dependence of floods on precipitation - temperature correspondence. In conclusions there are discussed an explanation of strong and longitudinal floods and two stages application of the models for flood forecasting. The models enliven a convenient computer double of a basin for following application.