Management of Changing Flood Risk Considering Information and Forecasts of Seasonal to Interannual Climate State

摘要

We present a multi-season ahead, multivariate, nonlinear (PPR) model to forecast the flood risk at multiple sites in the Western United States, conditional on measures of the winter state of the Pacific Ocean and Atmosphere. The approach permits an assessment of the uncertainty of the forecast as well as of the regional spatial structure of the multi-site forecast equations. Spatially contiguous regions with similar and opposite flood response to winter climate state are identified. The differences provide an opportunity for a flood insurance strategy that hedges risk.