SOURCES, NATURE, AND IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTIES ONCATASTROPHE MODELING

摘要

The information presented in this paper is one part of a larger discussion on the inner workings ofcatastrophe models and how they assess risk from natural hazards. In particular, this discussion focuses onthe role of uncertainty in catastrophe models by examining the sources, nature, and impact of uncertaintyon assessing natural hazard risk. An illustrative example of assessing earthquake risk in South Carolinaenables one to understand how uncertainty in the modeling process affects the risk between stakeholders.The larger discussion, to be published in 2004, brings together researchers at the Wharton School of theUniversity of Pennsylvania with the collective wisdom of three leading modeling firms (Risk ManagementSolutions, EQECAT, and AIR Worldwide). Catastrophe Modeling: A New Approach to Managing Riskwill be available from Kluwer Academic Publishers.