New Model Evaluation Tools (MET) Software Capabilities for QPF Verification

摘要

@@ 1.Introduction Verification plays a crucial role in improvement of precipitation forecasts The Model Evaluation Tools (MET) software was designed to provide the numerical weather prediction community with quality software incorporating the latest advances in forecast verification, including methods for verifying quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). The recent addition of probabilistic and ensemble verification capabilities to the MET software has led to innovations demonstrated in the verification activities of two QPF projects in the United States. The Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) conducted an experiment examining heavy, prolonged winter precipitation. Prediction of convective precipitation was one focus of the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) 2010 Spring Experiment. Examples from these projects demonstrating MET's spatial, object-based verification of ensemble relative frequency (e.g. probability) and ensemble mean will be presented and compared to traditional methods. In addition to verifying QPF, atmospheric river and radar reflectivity fields were evaluated using MET's object based spatial verification. These examples illustrate the enhanced diagnostic information available from spatial verification versus traditional metrics.