Operational use of nowcasting methods for hydrological forecasting by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute

摘要

The Czech Hydrometeorological Institute is the primary agency responsible for monitoring and forecasting of river stages at national level. In recent years, precipitation estimation and nowcasting tools derived from radar data were established. Together with hydrological models, these tools were tested for use in flash flood forecasting. The high uncertainty of predicting such a type of phenomena leads to using various nowcasting methods for estimation of predicted rainfall totals. This "variant-approach" was tested on case studies and is going to be set up for operational testing for pilot catchments. Detailed case studies of two extreme flash floods, which occurred on 24 June 2006, are presented and serve to demonstrate the possibilities and limitations of this method.