Optimal Management of Watershed under Uncertainty: A Case Study in Diez Lagos Flood Catchment Area, Southern New Mexico

摘要

In water resource projects, most of the constraints and objectives for the decision-making process are not deterministic and cannot be specified precisely; these criteria therefore introduce various levels of uncertainty that cause different levels of risk. By quantifying different sources of uncertainty, however, risks related with watershed management can be minimized. Such quantification of existing uncertainties can be accomplished through both probability theory and fuzzy sets. The case study in this research involves the application of a fuzzy optimization method to the management of a watershed to the west of the Mesilla Valley in southern New Mexico. In this watershed, flood runoff goes to a flood-controlling pond system that simultaneously protects the downstream residential areas and creates opportunities for local direct water uses, such as riparian restoration, water delivery to downstream areas, and aquifer recharge. By considering the uncertainty involved in most water resource projects, the fuzzy optimization method in this case study was able to recommend an optimal management approach for the multi-objective flood-controlling pond system under consideration, an approach that is extendable to other similar cases.