One of the many challenges to be faced when promoting the adoption of new technology is the presentation of a robustrnbusiness case showing that investment in that technology will be worthwhile. In many instances, new technologiesrnincrease the cost of design and build, therefore the need arises to demonstrate that the initial investment is justifiedrnthrough-life in terms of either a reduction in total cost, or an improvement in overall performance.rnSimulation offers a means of addressing this question. By incorporating into a single model the through-life cost andrnperformance of a system, with and without the benefit of some new technology, one can trade off different aspects of thernsolution, to achieve best overall value for money.rnThis paper considers the benefit afforded by prognostic technology, providing advanced warning of impending failuresrnof on-board equipments on a naval platform. Such capability gives the support provider the opportunity to replacerncorrective action associated with unplanned failures with pre-emptive action associated with predicted failures.rnThe simulation takes account of the dynamics of the supply chain and the complexities of the ships’ mission, in whichrnthe tasking changes from day to day, placing different demands on the outputs from ships’ systems, and providingrnlimited opportunities for the support provider to deliver maintenance services.rnThe simulation allows these effects to be quantified, facilitating the trade-off between the initial investment in thernpredictive technology, and the through-life savings accrued through provision of support more cost-effectively.
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