RISK ANALYSIS OF CONSTRUCTION DIVERSION FOR HYDRO PROJECT

摘要

In the paper, taking diversion time limit for a project as the criteria of judgement, we apply the Monte-Carlo method and the model of risk analysis CIM model to combine and superpose the risk factors of two alternative schemes of construction diversion for certain project respectively. Two alternative schemes are hereby evaluated. The computation results help to provide comparable data for the decision on design scheme; thus we can take measures in advance and draw up plans to control and reduce the occurrence of risk during construction diversion. This paper considers also there are many factors affecting the risk of river diversion during construction such as hydrologic, hydraulic and the relation between reservoir storage and stage. These factors have double uncertainty of stochastic and fuzzy. Based on both uncertainties of random and fuzzy, a risk calculation methodology of river diversion during cofferdam construction and operation is given respectively. Finally, the further studying method of risk of river diversion during construction in the future is proposed.