AN EVALUATION OF DAUMOD MODEL IN ESTIMATING URBAN BACKGROUND CONCENTRATIONS

摘要

This article presents an evaluation of the performance of the urban atmospheric dispersion model (DAUMOD) in estimating nitrogen oxides (NO_x) background concentrations in Copenhagen. Estimations of hourly average (averaged over a year), mean daily and mean monthly concentrations of NO_x are compared with observed values for two years of data. The model slightly underestimates low hourly average values and overestimates high values. The cumulative frequency distribution of mean daily concentration obtained from model estimations is in good agreement with the obtained from observed data. We performed a statistical analysis to determine the agreement between estimated and observed concentration values. The results show that 95.8% of hourly average estimations, 86.8% of mean daily and 100% of monthly average concentrations are within a factor of two of the observed values. The normalised mean square error of predictions is +0.13 for hourly average estimations, +0.22 for mean daily values and +0.02 for monthly mean concentrations. The fractional bias values are: -0.049 for hourly mean estimations, -0.047 for mean daily values and -0.053 for monthly average estimations. The values of the statistical parameters allow us to consider that though estimations are lightly larger than the observed values, the model performance is acceptable.