IMPACT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE LOSSES IN VIETNAM

摘要

The tropical cyclones that make landfall in the coastal areas of Vietnam cause increasing economic losses, with an average of six landfalls per year leading to approximately VND 12,500 billion in damages. It is assumed that the losses are mainly due to socio-economic developments, i.e. growing wealth and greater settlement of exposed areas. However, it is also thought that the rise in damages is caused by increasing frequency of severe cyclones resulting from climate change. In this paper, we estimate the impact of socioeconomic and global warming on the tropical cyclones losses. We investigate the historical impact functions of storm damage by using the Ordinary Least Squares estimator and regress damages on tropical cyclone characteristics. Based on simulation results of Typhoon Lekima in 2007 under global warming, socioeconomic development scenarios SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathways) and the population density of Vietnam, we estimate the impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on tropical cyclone losses in the end of 21st century. Economic losses caused by typhoon will change under global warming at landfall. Socioeconomic changes will increase losses by approximately three and sixteen times greater than that due to climate-induced changes corresponding to SSP3 and SSP5 scenarios.