Mental Models in an Emerging Industry: The Photovoltaic Industry in Massachusetts

摘要

A model-based field study was conducted to elucidate the detailed beliefs of participants in the photovoltaic industry. The mental models of system participants are important because participants are the people with the greatest knowledge about the system, because in any policy solution they are the critical actors, and because it is their decisions and actions from which the behavior of the system emerges. Seventeen experts were interviewed. The knowledge they conveyed was expressed as a set system dynamics models; these models were characterized and compared. The informants all expressed dynamic growth as a result of reinforcing feedback processes, but few perceived of any balancing feedback. Characteristics of the system they perceive include loosely coupled segments resulting in weak feedbacks. Their beliefs indicate successful policies will have to recognize the difference between global and local supplies, and large and small customers.