Assessment of the vulnerability of water resource systems in China with the runoff sensitivity factor

摘要

Based on the relationship of watershed long-term runoff change rate with both long-term precipitation and potential evaporation rates of change, the expressions for the sensitivity factor of watershed runoff to climate change were derived for the watersheds in China. By using information on average annual precipitation, potential evaporation, discharge and land surface properties of the watershed, the sensitivity factors of runoff to precipitation for the nine major hydro-logical regions and 82 hydrological sub-regions of China were calculated. It was found that the sensitivity factor of runoff to precipitation in the humid watersheds such as southwest China was much smaller than that in the arid regions such as the Yellow River region. Based on these sensitivity factors, the vulnerabilities of water resources systems of all regions in China were assessed and the results were very consistent with what people have recognized in reality.