We developed a model for the problabilistic behavior of a rechargeable battery acting as the energy storage component in a photovoltaic power supply system. Stochastic and deterministic models are created to simulate the beahvior of the system components. The compoents are the solar resource, the photovoltaic power supply system, the rechargeable battery, and a load. Artificial neural networks are incorporated into the model of the rechargeable battery to simulate damage that occurs during deep discharge cycles. The equations governing system behavior are combined into one set and solved simultaneously in the MOnte Carlo framework to evaluate the probabilistic character of measures of battery behavior.
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