Modeling the Long-term Development of Chinese Steel Industry

摘要

This paper uses system dynamics to model the process of steel-making in China on the basis of statistical data and analysis of the current situation in China. Simulation result tells the developing trend of Chinese steel industry in the next 50 years. Also it reveals the current and potential problems in Chinese steel industry covering environmental pollution, production structure, and overinvestment on new facility. It is concluded that restructuring production by substituting BOF with EAF technology,increasing the usage rate of steel scrap and Chinese government's macro control on investment on steel industry are feasible solutions to the problems. But none of them can solve all the problems in Chinese steel industry.So it is necessary for China to consider environmental protection and sustainable development when boosting its economy.