SEA-LEVEL EXTREMES AND CHALLENGES TO MANAGE THE RISK OF COASTAL HAZARDS IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAIIAN ISLANDS

摘要

The objective of this study is to provide an improved outlook on the climatology of sea level extremes by seasonal-to-annual time scale for the Hawaiian and other neighboring Islands. The monthly average values of sea level have been used to investigate the seasonality, while the varying likelihood of extremely high sea levels has been examined from the hourly sea level data. Based on the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model, the L-moments method has been used to estimate the model parameters. The bootstrap method has been used to define the exceedance probability level of upper and lower bound at the 90% confidence interval. On the basis of these return calculations and expected extremes of high sea level, a scenario for future shoreline retreat has been estimated to aid in decision analyses for coastal hazards management.