Simulation modeling and analysis for ordering decision of manufacturer with supply, demand and exchange rate risks

摘要

Ordering decision-making in global supply chain faces more risks such as the uncertainties of supply, demand and exchange rate. A multi-stage, stochastic, non-linear programming model is proposed to describe this problem. Due to its complexity, discrete-event simulation is used to capture the stochastic and dynamic characteristics, and evaluate the system's performance. A response surface method integrating with simulation and ranking selection is designed to optimize the ordering quantities. The results of simulation experiments validate the model and optimization procedure proposed in this paper.