The Future of Australia's Mineral Wealth - Leasing to Support an Ageing Population

摘要

Australia's ageing population means that by 2050 there will be 2.7 people of working age to support each Australian aged 65 years and over compared with five working people per retiree today and compared with 7.5 in 1970 (Swan, 2010). This means that there is going to be a greater demand on social services - for medical and aged care - from a smaller private income base. How will this gap be met? Australia is fortunate in that it has vast resources of mineral wealth; from iron ore, nickel and gas in Western Australia to the giant copper and uranium deposits at Olympic Dam in South Australia. The prospect of a meaningful profit based tax on this vast mineral wealth has been lost through Australian government's handling of the issue in 2010 and with an industry fiercely opposed to the prospect of a mining tax. Hence, new ways of thinking are required. This paper looks at the issues facing the implementation of a novel scheme whereby Australia leases the mineral resources it extracts and thus derives income over the decades the metals are in-use in pipes, wires and structures with a premium paid for unreturned material or that used in dissipative applications. Applicable minerals could include copper, aluminium, nickel and rare earths. If Australia simply digs up and sells the metals once, the buyer becomes custodian of that resource and they benefit from controlling the future 'above-ground' resource stock. A complementary driver for a leasing scheme is the increasing importance of chain-of-custody following initiatives of the Responsible Jewellery Council with gold and diamonds, now with the potential to extend across commodities. The Australian minerals sector could thus position itself as a premium supplier with high social and environmental credentials. Recognising the implementation challenges, this paper includes a review of how such a system could be enforced to ensure that the metal is tracked throughout its life. It concludes with a discussion of the rates and terms should such agreements hold and suggestions for institutional arrangements for enforcing compliance.