UNCERTAINTIES IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE RADIOLOGICAL IMPACT OF RADIOLOGICAL DISPERSAL DEVICES

摘要

Effective planning for events of radiological terrorism requires the use of atmosphericrndispersion models and knowledge of input parameters. Dispersion of radioactivernmaterial has been calculated to obtain an estimate of population exposure and groundrncontamination following the detonation of a radiological dispersal device. Using typicalrnhigh activity sources of ~(60)Co, ~(137)Cs and ~(192)Ir as source terms and different meteorologicalrnconditions, the results from two dispersion models were compared. The Hotspot modelrn(Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, United States of America) and the Plume5rnmodel (Atomic Energy Research Institute, Hungary) provided similar ground depositionrnvalues, but exposure (effective dose) values were significantly different. The paperrndiscusses the extent of uncertainties due to variation of some parameters.