Managing uncertainty

摘要

There is uncertainty in all aspects of life. In business, this uncetainty particulary mainfests itself in system performance, risks, estimation, and benefits. How can these uncreaintes be managed to the advantage of the enterpirise? This paper provides a strategic approach to amaging uncertainites in a decision-meaking enviroment. It is based upon four processes: 1) a means for the analytical deocmposition of scources of uncetainty, aming them visible to both the analyst and the manager; 2) a method for rapidly capturing existing information for all parameters from a heterogeneous array of souces and using these in decision models; 3) an information value analysis process (IVAP) for developing a cost-effective strategy for acquiring new information; and 4) a means to present results and their implcations online in an easily understandable "what-if' response mode.