CyVar: Extending Var-At-Risk to ICT

摘要

CyVar extends the Value-At-Risk statistics to ICT systems under attack by intelligent, goal oriented agents. CyVar is related to the time it takes an agent to acquire some access privileges and to the one it owns these privileges. To evaluate the former time, we use the security stress, a synthetic measure of the robustness of an ICT system. We approximate this measure through the Haruspex suite, an integrated set of tools that supports ICT risk assessment and management. After defining CyVar, we show how it supports the evaluation of three versions of an industrial control system.