An efficient global methodology for hazard analysis of dam complexes and cascades

摘要

Hazard analysis of dams arranged in a complex or cascade may involve the assessment of a large number of different scenarios of combined failures. However, a tremendous computation time would be needed to perform a detailed modelling of the flows generated by all possible scenarios. Therefore, the present paper describes a methodology for analysing the flows induced by the most relevant incidents occurring on a complex or in a cascade of dams and reservoirs. The methodology combines several hydrodynamic models, including the two-dimensional flow solver WOLF 2D and a simplified lumped hydrodynamic model, to simulate (ⅰ) the flows induced on the dams complex, (ⅱ) the potential breaching in the cascade of other dams, as well as (ⅲ) the propagation of the flood wave in the whole downstream valley. The application of the methodology to a practical case study involving a complex of five dams is also described.