Land-use and land-cover sceneries in China: an application of Dinamica EGO model

摘要

Land is an indispensable natural resource for human, without which we cannot survive and develop. Land-usechange, influenced by both natural environment and human activity, has a close relationship with food security, resourceutilization, biodiversity and climate change. In order to understand the process and driving mechanism of land-usechange, dynamic models were developed in these years, among which Dinamica EGO is a practical one and has beenwidely used in the world. In this paper, we aim to use Dinamica EGO to simulate the land-use of China in 2005 with dataextracted from SPOT VGT NDVI. The real land-use map was compared with the simulation result so as to verify thefeasibility of Dinamica EGO. Then we supposed three sceneries under which we could analyze the land-use change ofChina in 2020. Results indicated that: on the basis of no extreme natural disasters or exceptional policy fluctuation, thegrassland area would reduce by 22.21 million hectares averagely. However forest would increase by 19.81 billionhectares on average. Water and unused land would probably remain stable as there was little change in three sceneries.Farmland areas showed a good agreement under these sceneries whereas the greatest difference in land-use areaestimations lies in built-up with an uncertainty accounting for 1.67%.© (2012) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.