Temperature change and its effect factors in the Yangtze Delta, China

摘要

Based on the meteorological data, land use date from TM images and social statistical data, the evidences of regional temperature change with the elements of mean annual temperature, mean annual maximum and minimum temperature, and extreme high and low temperature from 1959 to 2005, were detected, and the impact of human activities on temperature was analyzed in the Yangtze Delta region. The results indicated an increase in mean annual temperature, mean annual maximum and minimum temperature. Mean annual temperature in all cities in the region increased, and the increase rate in winter was greater than that in spring and autumn. The increase of mean annual maximum and minimum temperature was similar to that of mean annual temperature spatially. In 3 stations of Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou, most hot days, least cold days and the highest mean temperature all appeared in the first 5 years of this century. Land use changed greatly, and a large amount of cropland was replaced with residential and constructional areas(R/C areas) from 1980 to 2000 in the Yangtze Delta region. The change of mean annual temperature was partly corresponding to the change of land use. Total registered population increased rapidly in 16 cities of the Yangtze Delta region, and there is a good linear correlation between the tendency ratio of total registered population and the mean annual temperature in 16 cities from 1978 to 2005. Total amount of energy consumption and GDP increased in 3 provinces of Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang where the Yangtze Delta located, both the final consumption of energy by industry and GDP had a relatively good linear relationship with the mean annual temperature in Shanghai from 1952 to 2005. This paper will help the understanding and attribution of climate change and simulation of the future response of weather-related disasters under various global change scenarios.