Assimilation and Seasonal Forecasts of SST and Upper Ocean Temperatures Using Satellite and ARGO Data Base

摘要

A combination of current operational global atmospheric and oceanic data sets and those from ARGO oceanic floats provided a unique opportunity for data assimilation and seasonal forecasts. This study explores predictability of monsoonal component of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) called the Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO). The results of the inclusion versus non-inclusion of the ARGO temperature profile data sets are presented here where all other data sets are retained. Somewhat robust seasonal prediction of the ISO wave was possible from the inclusion of ARGO profile data sets. These results show very reasonable amplitudes and the meridional phase speed propagation for the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation on seasonal time scale predictions. Such results were noted both in the atmospheric motion field (the 850 hPa level zonal winds) but also in the subsurface thermal fields of the Indian Ocean. These subsurface temperature structures were not known in previous studies that bring in a new aspect of the coupled nature of the ISO.