Temporal and spatial variations of precipitation in the Jinsha River basin during 1961-2010

摘要

Knowing the variations of precipitation at the basin scale is very important to study the impacts of climate change on water resources and hydrological processes. To achieve the temporal and spatial variations of precipitation on long time scales and some extreme indicators in the Jinsha River basin, some typical precipitation indices were analysed based on daily precipitation data for 1961-2010 for the research area. The results showed that AP had a certain increasing tendency without passing the significance test, while AP in the lower reach of the basin decreased slightly. PFS had no obvious changes, while MP through a year (except rainfall in September and December) had a slight increasing tendency. In addition, AP and PFS showed obvious spatial differences, and the higher rainfall area was located in the lower basin especially in the Hengduan Mountain area. LRD and MRD increased slightly in the upper and middle regions, while they decreased slightly in the lower basin. HRD increased over most of the whole basin, but it had a decreasing tendency in the headwater region and around Dege station but did not pass the significance test. DD and CDD in one year showed similar spatial change patterns and had an obvious decreasing tendency in the upper and middle basin, while they had an obvious increasing tendency in the lower basin. CWD almost decreased over the whole basin, and decreased significantly in a small part of the lower basin. The temporal changes of the typical precipitation indices may confirm the possible increasing tendency for occurrence of drier climate and even drought events in the downstream of Jinsha River basin.