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Using Independent System Simulation to Mitigate Risk in the Dalrymple Bay Coal Chain

机译:使用独立系统仿真减轻Dalrymple湾煤炭链中的风险

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An unprecedented growth in demand for coal exports has placed pressure on multi-user coal chains to guarantee that their capacity expansion projects will meet the required demand. These projects, however, are taking place in an increasingly complex commercial and technical environment - competing rail and coal terminal service providers as well as a myriad of competing mine operators, all needing to operate in an increasingly integrated manner to get the most out of expensive shared assets. Increasing system complexity and integration has driven the need for more holistic and sophisticated analysis tools. The capacity of coal chain subsystems, such as mine, rail and port, can no longer be determined effectively in isolation. Understanding the nature of the interactions between these subsystems, their sensitivity to uncertainty and the resultant capacity of the integrated system is the key to both maximising value and minimising risk. Recently, TSG has worked closely together with the Integrated Logistics Company and a number of key stakeholders in the Dalrymple Bay Coal Chain to develop independent system master plans. These master plans have provided a quantitative and rational assessment of coal chain capacity in its current state and a prediction of its capacity once a pipeline of committed capacity improvements is in place. This paper provides an overview of the study and a comprehensive guide to the process required to effectively achieve valuable strategic insights in a challenging multi-user stakeholder environment.
机译:煤炭出口需求的空前增长给多用户煤炭链带来了压力,以确保其扩能项目能够满足需求。但是,这些项目是在日益复杂的商业和技术环境中进行的-竞争的铁路和煤炭码头服务提供商以及众多竞争的矿山运营商,所有这些都需要以日益集成的方式进行运营,以充分利用昂贵的资源共享资产。系统复杂性和集成度的提高,促使人们需要更全面,更复杂的分析工具。煤链子系统(如矿山,铁路和港口)的能力不再能够孤立地有效确定。了解这些子系统之间交互作用的性质,它们对不确定性的敏感性以及集成系统的最终能力,是使价值最大化和风险最小化的关键。最近,TSG与综合物流公司以及Dalrymple Bay煤炭链中的许多主要利益相关者紧密合作,以制定独立的系统总体规划。这些总体规划对当前状态的煤炭链产能进行了定量和合理的评估,并在承诺的产能改进管道到位后对其产能进行了预测。本文概述了这项研究,并提供了在具有挑战性的多用户利益相关者环境中有效获得有价值的战略见解所需过程的全面指南。

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