Unequal Interval Grey Forecast of the Rate of High Temperature Abrasion of Water-wall Tubes in Circulating Fluidized Bed Boilers

摘要

An unequal interval grey forecast model GM (1, 1) was proposed based on the grey system theory and the measurement data of the rate of high temperature abrasion of water-wall tubes in circulating fluidized bed (CFB) boilers. According to the former part of measurement data, the latter part of high temperature abrasion rate of water-wall tubes was forecasted by using the GM (1,1) model. Through comparing the computation values with the measurement values, the accuracy and the feasibility of the model were verified. The result shows that under small statistics conditions, the unequal interval grey forecast model can offer precisely prediction results, which can provide scientific basis and guidance for the condition-based maintenance of the water-wall tubes in CFB boilers.