Validation of a Markov-based Weather Model for Simulation of OM for Offshore Wind Farms

摘要

A novel method to model wind and wave conditions for offshore sitesrnbased on historical data has been developed, in order to simulate thernoperating phase of offshore wind farms. Significant wave heights arernmodeled by a finite state Markov chain in discrete time. Wind speedsrnare simulated according to their conditional probability distribution,rndependent on the corresponding wave height. Results show thernaccuracy of modeled wind speed and wave height time series, byrncomparing their second-order statistics, linear correlations andrncumulative distribution functions for persistence with observed timernseries.