Adaptive Measures for Future Storm Surge and Coastal Hazards Considering Multi-decadal Fluctuation of the Climate Change in the Western North Pacific

摘要

In this study, we first investigate the Multi-variate ENSO Index (MEI)rnand the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index as climate data if arnmulti-decadal fluctuation of climate exists or not by using a relativelyrnnew method, Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT). Then, the tropicalrncyclone activities using Best Track data from the Joint TyphoonrnWarning Center (JTWC) were analyzed also using HHT to find out thernrelation between the multi-decadal fluctuation of climate and tropicalrncyclones in the western North Pacific (WNP). The results showed arncertain relation between them in about 15 to 30 years timescales.rnFinally, we investigated past records of typhoon and storm surge eventsrnin Japan and found the effects of multi-decadal fluctuation of climaternon related coastal hazards in similar multi-decadal timescales. Based onrnthe results, adaptive measures for future storm surge and coastalrnhazards under changing climate which takes into account “multidecadalrnfluctuations” of climates as well as the global warming trend isrnproposed.