USING MULTIPLE METHODS TO PREDICT CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON BUMBLEBEES IN NORTH AMERICA

摘要

The rate of current climate change during this century isrnlikely to be faster than during any time within the last tenrnmillennia. One of the likely consequences of this changernin temperature and precipitation pattern is a northboundrnshift in the distributions of insects, with importantrnconsequences for natural ecosystems and agriculture.rnBioclimatic approach, which correlates speciesrndistribution with environmental parameters, is usedrnfrequently to quantify this shift; however multiplernmethods in existence and intrinsic data uncertainty renderrncomparison of different projections impossible. To reducernthe projections’ uncertainty, we suggest an approach,rnwhich takes into account data variability and is based onrnemploying multiple methods for generation thernprojections. We further illustrate this approach byrnprojecting the climate change impact on three species ofrnbumblebees (Bombus spp.) in North America. Climaternchange has dramatic effects on bumblebees, including thernreduction of the available ecological niche space. Thernscope of these effects, however, becomes evident onlyrnbased on the analysis of the entire set of equally plausiblernmodel outcomes.