Modelling the Effect of Climate Change on the Ocean Wave Climate Around the World

摘要

This paper analyses the trends and the future projections of significantrnwave height in several ocean areas at different parts of the world. Itrnuses a stochastic Bayesian hierarchical space-time model, with arnregression component with atmospheric levels of CO2 as covariates inrnorder to estimate the expected long-term trends and make futurernprojections towards the year 2100. The model was initially developedrnfor an area in the North Atlantic ocean, and has been found to performrnreasonably well there, and it is now investigated how the modelrnperforms for other ocean areas. 11 new ocean areas have been analysedrnwith the model, and this paper presents the results pertaining to thernestimated long-term trends and future projections of monthly maximumrnsignificant wave height for each of the 12 ocean areas..