About a Possibility for a Probabilistic Interpretation for Forecast Dateswhen Ice Thickness Growth up to 20-25 cm

摘要

The article is concerned with results of probabilistic interpretation forrnforecast dates when ice thickness growth up to 20-25 cm in the Kara,rnLaptev, East-Siberian and Chukchi Seas. The method of thernprobabilistic interpretation is based on the condition forecast errorsrndistribution’s approach formulated by the author (Dmitriev, 1997). Itsrngoal is to find a way to estimate categorical (binary) forecastrnuncertainty for further translating into uncertainty in the quantity ofrninterest to the user ac-cording to “end-to-end” forecasting concept. Thernresults of calculating forecast errors distribution density parameters arerngiven for combining data from the areas mentioned above. It provides arnprincipal possibility to use binary forecasts in continuous optimizationrnduring planning sea ice-depended actions. Advantages of the methodrnproposed compared with traditional MOS approach (“matrixes ofrncontingency”) are shown.