DEMAND FORECASTING MODEL OF MOBILE TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICE WITH CANCELLATION OF SUBSCRIPTION

摘要

Forecasting models for the subscribers of mobile telecommunication service have beenrnmainly evolved to forecast the new subscribers using diffusion or logistics model. However, due to thernvarious kind of telecommunication service technology and individual or social environment,rncancellations of telecommunication service are increasing everyday. It is rational to consider thernservice cancellation in order to forecast the mobile telecommunication service members accurately.rnHowever, researches about telecommunication demand forecasting have ignored the servicerncancellation until now. It is also important to consider the competitive situation where new companiesrnare entering into the existing telecommunication market. We propose the demand forecasting model ofrnmobile telecommunication service considering competitive market condition and service cancellation.rnSome practical cases of mobile telecommunication market in Korea are analyzed using multiple linearrnregression.