Study on Relationship Between Trade Development of Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone and Economic Growth in Shanghai

摘要

Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone (WGQ FTZ) is taken as an empirical object to analyze the relationship between trade development of FTZ and local economy growth. Firstly, Granger causality test is carried out for qualitative analysis. The test results show that WGQ FTZ's trade is the significant cause of GDP development in Shanghai, and moreover, WGQ FTZ's trade can continually boost local GDP growth in 2 or 3 years. And then Stepwise regression is introduced to compare and quantitatively analyze the different effects on local economy development by trade volume inside and outside of WGQ FTZ, fixed assets investment and gross industry output value in Shanghai. The final regression model indicates that WGQ FTZ's trade volume plays much greater role in local economy development than the trade volume outside of WGQ FTZ, and when WGQ FTZ's trade volume is increased by 1 percentage point, Shanghai's GDP will be increased by about 0.223 percentage points.