An Approach to Overseas Iron Ore Investment Risk Assessment based on Fuzzy Neural Network

摘要

The iron ore investment overseas influenced by a variety of risk factors including geological reserves risk, market risk, the risk of the investment environment, political and legal risks, and etc. Based on the theory of risk assessment, this paper firstly analyzed the risk from the asset influence and frequency of threat, set up risk level structure of overseas iron ore investment, and presented the membership matrices for judgment set. Then, the neural network and fuzzy reasoning theory were applied to evaluate the risk of overseas iron ore investment to obtain its risk grade. Finally, a calculation example was used to show how the method works, and the error analysis was applied to detecting effectiveness and reliability of the model performance.