Research of Risk Decision for Buy-Back Contract Formof BT Highway Project

摘要

As the result of the constructive particularity of BT highway project ,it not only determines the risk of BT project ,but also government can't control directly and effectively the construction activities in construction process. In engineering practice, buy-back contract is an important mean of that government controls BT project and risks in the project In buy-back contract) the core of the buy - back contract is buy -back price. There are three kinds of buy-back price contract forms in BT highway project, based on preliminary design budgetary estimate, construction drawing budget and settlement price. How to determine buy-back price contract forms of BT highway project is very important to operate BT highway project successfully ,and also a uncertain risk decision problem. Based on the assessment of the traditional risk decision methods , according to the particularity of the risk ,this paper establishes comprehensive risk decision-making model based on the extension theory. The model makes use of expert experience to establish matter -element model and utilizes dependent degree to decide the ideal decision plan. This method can inspire and guide decision analysis personnel to trace risks factors further, of which decision-making process is clear. It takes fully account of the basic data for engineering practice situation which is simple and reliable. The case of BT highway project in Sichuan province has been provided to demonstrate the application of risk decision-making model based on the extension theory. The results of the case illustrate that the risk decision for buy-back contract form of BT highway project is effective, and consistent with practice of BT highway project