MODELING POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM RELIABILITY AS THE FUNCTION OF COMMON WEATHER CONDITIONS

摘要

Earlier research work has focused on modeling effects of the extreme weather conditions on power distribution systems and on specific weather parameters causing specific faults in the distribution system. This unique study will demonstrate a combined effect of various weather parameters on the total number of interruptions caused in a region. Further, research that models daily, by-shift and hourly weather data to predict the number of interruptions in a region has never been done before. Based on common weather conditions, a theoretical model can be used for the prediction of power distribution interruptions and for interruption risk assessment based on immediate weather conditions. Using daily and hourly weather data, these models will be used to predict the number of daily or by shift interruptions and to normalize reliability indices for weather. The weather and environmental conditions to be addressed will include, but not be limited to, rain, wind, temperature, lightning density, humidity, barometric pressure, snow and ice. These conditions do not occur simultaneously at any one place, and the range of combinations is great, therefore the models will be developed to allow broad application. Statistical and deterministic simulations of the models using the data collected will be done employing existing software, and the results will be used to refine the models. Finally, the models will be used to predict power interruptions in areas that can be readily monitored, thus validating the models.