JUST HOW PRESCIENT ARE OUR BUILDING DAMAGE PREDICTIONS?

摘要

Adapazari was the scene of spectacular structural damage as well as widespread liquefaction after the earthquake of August 17, 1999. Damage patterns observed are re-examined to investigate whether they are indicative of a consistent trend explicable in terms of the building attributes and/or site conditions. 301 buildings that had collapsed fully have been re-evaluated from their design blueprints. An examination based solely on structural attributes, including data from other sets of building assessment projects, leads us to believe that building collapse is perhaps just too involved to reduce to a few simple guilt pointers. Site effects might have played a major role in the observed damage, because only a conflicting trend between structural attributes and the actual damage can be established.