DECISION ANALYSIS TOOLS FOR SAFETY, SECURITY, AND SUSTAINABILITY OF PORTS AND HARBORS

摘要

Industrial ports and harbors face significant safety, security, and sustainability challenges. Decisions must be made to assess risk and allocate risk management resources. Decision analysis has nearly 40 years of successful application to decision challenges. We present a comprehensive decision analysis framework that captures the concepts and tools of decision analysis. We use four illustrative examples to demonstrate the potential use of decision analysis: 1. Management of hazardous material at ports. 2. Dredging of contaminated material. 3. A general terrorist attack at ports. 4. A specific terrorist attack, the detonation of a radiological dissemination device (a "dirty bomb") in a port. We show how decision analysis concepts could be applied in each case to make risk management decisions. We conclude with some illustrative results of the analysis.