GLOBAL CHANGES, NEW RISKS, AND NOVEL METHODS AND TOOLS OF THEIR ASSESSMENT: MODELING AND MANAGEMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY IN UKRAINE

摘要

The main goal of this work is to strengthen the capacity in such fields as impact of uncertainty and unpredictability caused by global change (GC) on transformation of security and sustainability for which standard modeling methods and tools are inadequate. Advanced modeling method and tool for system risk analysis has been elaborated. It is based on catastrophes bifurcation, and chaos theories. A "fractal pyramid" of parametrical bifurcation sets, characterizing transition of security from one its sublevel to another, is constructed. On the basis of this pyramid, a hierarchical risk matrix of system transformation can be determined. The following questions will be examined: 1. How do new risks caused by GC escalate the extreme manmade and natural disasters? 2. Why do rare events take place with increasing frequency? 3. How do new challenges deform security area in the Black Sea region?